CanWaCH is pleased to provide a summary for our members and partners on the implications of the 2025 federal election results.
Following the victory by Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada, the new minority government is poised to restore a sense of stability amid a challenging global context. As the dust settles on #Elxn45, the House of Commons is set for a significant transformation: 169 Liberal MPs, 143 Conservative MPs, and 23 Bloc Québécois MPs will take their seats. Canada’s New Democratic Party secured 7 seats, losing Official Party status.
With 169 seats, the Liberal Party is three seats short of a majority. While formal support from opposition parties will be needed to pass legislation and maintain confidence, the Liberals are well positioned to work collaboratively with other members of Parliament to move their agenda forward. Given their strong seat count, we do not anticipate this configuration will negatively impact the government’s ability to lead in the immediate term.
In Canada, the caretaker convention governs the transition period. This period begins with the dissolution of Parliament and ends when a new government is sworn in or an incumbent is confirmed. During the caretaker period, the public service must act with restraint, deferring major decisions and focusing only on routine and urgent matters. This period has formally ended.
The process of selecting a new Cabinet is already underway. Cabinet composition is shaped by regional, gender and experiential balance, as well as long standing political traditions (for example, rotating fisheries ministers between coasts). Following past practice, we anticipate a new Cabinet will be sworn in within 2-3 weeks.
For comparison, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s 2015 Cabinet was sworn in just 16 days after election day.
Critic and Parliamentary Secretary roles are also key appointments in the post-election period. These positions often serve as rewards for strong campaigners and influential MPs. Opposition parties will be quick to name their critics to manage internal expectations, while government appointments may take a little longer but are expected to be in place by the fall session.
Since 2015, it has become standard practice to release ministerial mandate letters publicly, offering transparency on government priorities. While Prime Minister Carney has not yet confirmed whether this practice will continue, we expect mandate letters to be released later this spring or early summer, providing valuable insights into the government’s commitments and timelines. We also expect that mandate letters will be less rhetorical in the past, with a greater emphasis on implementation and accountability.
The House of Commons is currently scheduled to return on May 26, 2025. However, this date can be modified at the discretion of the Prime Minister. Once Parliament returns, attention will immediately turn to passing critical supply bills to ensure government operations continue ahead of the summer adjournment on June 20, 2025.
The usual spring budget was delayed due to the election. As a result, the government will need to prioritize passing a supply bill during the brief spring sitting. If a full budget is not tabled in June, it is likely we will see some form of mini budget presented in the fall of 2025.
While Parliament will return before the summer recess, the formation of Parliamentary committees will likely be delayed until the fall session. Committees play a crucial role in legislative review and oversight, but establishing their membership and leadership is a complex political negotiation among all parties.
As with each cabinet shuffle, political staff will be dismissed from any previous roles they held in the respective political offices. Over the next 60 days, these staff will support the transition to a new minister and team, while also seeking new roles (or a renewal of their current roles) within the government. It can be a very busy time for political staff, but once they assume their new positions, initial outreach can begin.
No. While ministers may be focused on transition activities, they retain full authority, and advocacy work can continue. It will be important to remain strategic and timely as new ministers and critics are briefed and policy directions are finalized.
The earliest reasonable window for new funding announcements will be in the fall of 2025. The House of Commons will return with a spring sitting. As is customary, the Governor General, in dissolving parliament and issuing the election writs, designates a date for the return of Parliament. Currently, Parliament is due to resume on May 26, 2025 before adjourning for the summer recess on June 20, 2025. The government will have important business to address regarding the funding of government initiatives (officially known as “supply”).
This session will begin with a Speech from the Throne, and will be the first opportunity for the Government to lay out their immediate priorities. Following the announcement of the new cabinet, advocacy should continue over the summer to help shape these priorities.
